CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 13/03 - 06Z MON 14/03 2005
ISSUED: 12/03 20:13Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There are no thunderstorms forecast.

SYNOPSIS

Progressive upper flow pattern will finally establish over Europe ... with deamplifying upper trough currently over central Europe moving off into Russia ... and an upstream vort max expected to cross the North Sea towards early Monday morning. Weak, broad upper WLY flow also present over the Mediterranean ... with several weak/ill-defined vort maxima FCST to overspread the region.

DISCUSSION

...east-central Europe...
Scattered showers and possibly a few TSTMS will likely develop over east-central and eastern Europe again with diurnal heating ... but given deamplifying nature of the upper trough ... and somewhat unfavorable low-level trajectories ... TSTM coverage should be substantially lower than on Saturday with this feature ... and a TSTM outlook does not appear to be necessary.

...Iberian Peninsula...
No sounding data are available from Iberia ... but GFS indicates widespread afternoon CAPE over much of Spain and Portugal. However ... GFS handled the convective evolution rather poorly over SW Europe/E Atlantic during the past days. Large-scale forcing for UVVs should be quite weak and it is questionable that TSTMS would form even if positive CAPE were to develop. Will not outlook TSTMS given the limited data ATTM. An update may be issued at later time.

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